How does Macon's homicide rate stack up to nation's other top contenders?
Macon recorded its 62nd homicide on Saturday night after a 22 year-old man was fatally wounded on Third Avenue. For the man's mother, it was her third son who's been murdered in the last two years, according to WMAZ/Channel 13.
The homicide marked the 62nd in Macon this calendar year, according to Coroner Leon Jones. At the current rate, based on the fact that the year is 92.7 percent of the way finished, Macon is on pace to finish 2022 with a homicide rate of 44.7.
Homicide rates are based on number of murders per 100,000 people, and Macon's population most recently was placed at 153,095 by the Census Bureau.
The website gunmemorial.org has document 51 out of the 62 Macon homicides this year...
So, how does Macon's projected murder rate stack up to St. Louis and Baltimore and the usual suspects? Well, it may take several years for all of the data to be compiled and the different cities ranked. Currently, for example, 2019 is the last year with reliable and complete rankings.
WMAZ/Channel 13 back in September also took a deeper dive into how Macon's homicide rate ranks nationally, and their conclusion, similar to Baldwin2k's conclusion, is that the data is incomplete and compiling up-to-date rankings is extremely difficult...
Regardless, out of the American cities with a population of 100,000-plus people, a murder rate of 44.7, which is where Macon projects for 2022, would've ranked No. 4 in the nation back in 2019, trailing only St. Louis, Baltimore and Birmingham, Al. Also, a murder rate of 44.7 would've ranked as the world's 28th deadliest city, sandwiched in between Cali, Colombia, Rio Branco, Brazil, Guatemala City, Guatemala and Zactecas, Mexico.
There are definite limitations in those comparisons, however, as the homicide rate spiked in the United States and different parts of the world beginning in 2020. For example, St. Louis' and New Orleans' homicide rates both rose by roughly 20 points in 2021, when compared to 2019. Atlanta's homicde rate, meanwhile, was 19.93 in 2019 and 30.9 in 2021.
In other words, it's highly unlikely that Macon could win the homicide rate national championship in 2022, based on the fact that homicides have spiked in so many major cities in the last three years. In fact, it's highly unlikely that Macon will even finish in the top 10 this year. Top 25, perhaps. But top 10, highly unlikely.
Locally, meanwhile, Baldwin County has recorded five homicides this year. Click on the links below for recaps:
At the current rate, Baldwin County is on pace for a murder rate of roughly 11.9 for 2o22. The murder rate for the state of Georgia, according to the CDC, was 10.5.